вторник, 13 октября 2015 г.

Экономика Австралии. Краеугольные камни и гибкость

Весьма интересную речь произнес сегодня Зам Председателя Резервного банка - Филип Лоуи на инвестиционной конференции CFA Institute Australia Investment Conference. Полный текст http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2015/sp-dg-2015-10-13.html



Сама речь написана очень грамотным языков, но в то же время просто описывает сложные и фундаментальные вещи проходящие в стране, экономике, регионе и мире.


Пара цитат:

1.Продуктивность и доходы

It is probably helpful to start with some context. This is usefully provided by this first graph, which shows various measures of how Australia's output and real income have evolved over the past couple of decades or so (Graph 1).

Graph 1
The green line shows output per hour worked. This is the conventional measure of labour productivity.

The orange line shows real income per hour worked.[1] In most countries, real output and income typically track one another quite closely and indeed this was the case for Australia during the 1990s. But over the 2000s, our real income increased much more quickly than our output owing to the large increase in our terms of trade. We became much better off as a nation because the prices of the goods that we were selling to the rest of the world increased quicker than the prices of the goods that we were buying from the rest of the world.

And, finally, the blue line shows real income, not per hour worked, but per person in Australia. This is probably the best measure of how average living standards have progressed through time: it takes into account the lift in productivity, changes in the relative prices of our exports and imports, and changes in the share of the population that is in paid employment. It is the strongest of the three lines shown here. This reflects the fact that over the past two decades or so there has been a substantial increase in the share of the population in paid employment; between 1993 and 2008, this share rose by 7 percentage points to over 50 per cent. This rise is accounted for by three trends: a decline in the unemployment rate, a rise in the participation rate and a decline in the share of children in the population

2. Краеугольные камни. Их пять: социально экономические институты страны, люди, минеральные ресурсы, сельскохозяйственные ресурсы, связи с Азией вкупе с нашей экспертизой в предоставлении высококачественных услуг.

Fundamentals

This leaves improving our productivity – the bottom line in Graph 1 – as the only alternative. And this is where our fundamentals matter. I have spoken about some of these fundamentals on other occasions, but it is worth highlighting some of these again today.[2] There are five in particular to which I would draw your attention.

The first is our strong institutional framework, including: the rule of law, respect for property rights, a well-functioning public administration and a well-established regulatory system. We can sometimes take these things for granted but, together, they form the bedrock upon which our high-income economy is built.

The second is our people. Our education system ranks reasonably highly by global standards. Australians generally have a ‘can do’ mentality and we have a demonstrated capability to adjust to a changing world. We adopt new technologies relatively quickly and many of us are prepared to take a risk. And we have successfully drawn people from all around the world to our shores, with more than 40 per cent of our population having been born overseas or having at least one parent who was born overseas.

The third is our tremendous base of mineral resources. Australia is fortunate to have some of the biggest and best-quality resource deposits on the planet. While the resources industry goes through large cycles, our resources continue to be in strong demand from the rest of the world. The export receipts from these resources effectively pay for many of the imports that we buy; over recent times these receipts have been equivalent to around half of Australia's annual import bill.

The fourth is our agricultural assets. As average incomes in Asia grow, so too does the demand for protein. Higher incomes also mean that there is a greater preparedness and ability to pay a premium price for high-quality, clean food. With our large tracts of agricultural land and the expertise built up from using that land over many decades, Australia has obvious advantages here.

And the fifth is our links with Asia and our expertise in delivering high-quality services. Over recent years, the focus has been very much on our relationship with China. This focus is likely to continue. But there are also significant opportunities elsewhere, including in Indonesia and India with their very large populations. Many of these opportunities lie in the services part of the economy, including in tourism, finance, education and professional services.

Together, this combination of fundamentals should provide us with confidence that we can continue to experience advances in our living standards. It is a combination of fundamentals that few other countries enjoy.